08.06.2011 y.

THE LONG KONDRATIEFF WAVES AND COSMICAL CLIMATE

B.M. Vladimirsky
Crimea astrophysical Observatory, V.I. Vernadsky Tavrida National University
e-mail:bvlad@yandex.ru

The Maxima and Minima of the Long Kondratieff Waves taken from authoritative economic sources were compared with Wolf number and the indeces of geomagnetic activity from 16 century. Generalized indeces of the Social-cultural dynamics also were used. It was revealed that the Maxima Kondratieff Waves are synchronized with the Maxima 11 years Cycles of Solar activity joined in groups in 5 cycles. The mean disagreement for all extremal points is +0.8±1.2 years. The mean period is 54.9±9.0 years. It was found that creative productivity in the mathematics and Natural sciences decreased in the Maxima of Long Waves. This effect was traced to past up to 12 century the creativity in the Humanities sphere for the such epoch increases. It was shown that the predomination of the analytical style in fine arts (including the music, the architecture and the painting) is observed for these time intervals. The results obtained is discussed in the frame of the S.Yu. Maslov’s hypothesis about alternative predomination in the Society left – righthemispheric strategies of the assimilation of the Reality. Cosmic synchronization of Kondratieff Waves realizes probably via magnetospheric processes (then is a period in geomagnetic disturbances about 54 years, corresponding to Long Wave’s period). The general conclusion is made that Kondratieff Waves is the most important period of Social life. The nearest maximum of this oscillations is expected about 2022 year.



To a question on the nature of social and economic cyclicity

V.Y. Narmanskiy
Research laboratory "Heliorhythm"
е-mаil: heliomechanics@gmail.com


It is offered new Cosmo physical an index, which basis became vectors (and the sums of vectors) planetary speeds, in heliocentric system of coordinates. The index which has received the name "Heliomechanics" (HM) is calculated by the computer program written on basis ephemerides DE200 and is used as a tool for research and prediction of various socio-economic indicators.

The purpose of work – the forecast of the given processes proved from a position of classical mechanics of Newton and Keplers laws. We shall note, that the multistage mechanism of physical communications of parameters of planetary speeds existing between changes and social and economic processes, in the given work it is not considered. Earlier the method heliomechanics (heliocentric mechanics) has shown the perspective in research and forecasting of solar activity and a climate .
The example of practical application of a method is shown on the schedule where number HМ5-6 - average values of the sums of vectors of speeds of the Jove (5), Saturn (6) and numbers of vectors of angular speed of Jupiter (HМ5), Saturn (HМ6), are compared to a number of employments of the population in the USA, in an interval 1920-1940гг. (U.S. Census Bureau Statistical:

Curves are shown: employment in the USA and indexes HМ5, HМ6 and HМ5-6. Across - dates, on a vertical on the right – employment of the population, on a vertical at the left – HM-indexes (in angular degrees). The increased markers allocate years of pass by Jupiter (HМ5) of points aphelion (1922-1934) and perihelion (1928-1940), and also pass by Saturn (HМ6) of a point aphelion (1929).

On the schedule waves formed in the variable speeds of planets, with maxima in perihelion and minima in aphelion are visible. The factor of correlation (Pearson) received at comparison of some employment with number HM5-6, has made r=0.848. Thus crisis in the USA, begun with exchange panic on October, 24-29, 1929, with high accuracy has coincided with pass of a point by Saturn aphelion (L271°.2). In clause it is shown, that economic crisis at 19-20 centuries have concurrence in time with the moments of pass by major planets (the Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus) points perihelion and aphelion, that it is possible to explain cardinal change of a direction of speed in the given points of orbits. The beginning of last world crisis has taken place simultaneously with pass by Uranus aphelion (L350°.96) on October, 10, 2008. The received laws have underlain prognostic a method and has been predicted, that in the spring of 2011 the social and economic situation in the world will become aggravated – the forecast was justified. Growth of social activity in the countries of Africa, Middle East, an intense economic situation in a number of the countries of EU, Belarus and at last – the resolution of the United Nations №1973 (on March, 17) and operation of the NATO in Libya (on March, 19) have coincided with peak of speed of the Jupiter past perihelion on March, 18, 2011. The assumption is made, that the system of vectors of planetary speeds and system of reactions in biosphere are synchronized, thus the role synchronizing belongs to vectors of speed of planets, and a role synchronizable – to reactions of biosphere.

It is shown, that speeds of the Jove and Saturn (having a synchronous ~59-years cycle), will be simultaneously reduced up to 2017-2018 and it is possible to assume, that synchronously with them in an interval 2011-2018 years rates of economic will be reduced also. On February, 20, 2017 - the Jupiter (L194°.75) and on March, 5, 2018 - Saturn (L272°.43), will pass aphelion the orbits, the direction of their speeds will change, but whether national economies and economic as a whole will be ready to this?